Food Club

[Pickles]

Probably not the wisest set of bets, but:

(Peg, Ned, Squire) x Fran x Goo
(Peg, Ned) x Buck x Goo
Squire x Buck
(Luck, Stripe) x Squire x Goo
Scurvy x Squire x Fran x Goo
Orvinn x Squire

Hoping for a Squire win today. Otherwise...well, hopefully I won't bust? Going home with a fortune....or (more likely) broke! /Pipe-dream bets/

[Blue]

Siniri's picks paid out 28:10. Nice!

Thanks Siniri!

[Pickles]

Can't complain about 24:10. Especially when I figured I'd bust with all the crazy Squire bets. I still think he's due, so I'm probably going to cover him at least *some* until he does win.

ETA: Have to put my bets in early. All the arenas are green as of right now; this screams at least a single upset to me, if not a double or more (especially since we had a 2's day within the last two weeks.) Goo's still high on wins, and so is Tail. Squire's still due for a win, and Luck is super under his average. For what that info is worth - I use it to tweak my bets, particularly on days like today where things realllly don't feel right.

Anyways, here's what I used. Mostly covers a single upset in any given arena, leaving out Shipwreck entirely. Follow with care:
Goo x Scurvy x Luck x (Fair, Young, Ed)
Goo x (Bonnie, Buck) x Luck x Ed
Goo x Scurvy x Tail x Ed
Fed x Scurvy x Luck x Ed
Squire x Scurvy x Luck
Squire x Scurvy x Ed
Squire x Luck x Ed

[Siniri]

P(16:10-176:10): 41%
EV: 2.46-3.04

Bets:
(SW - Black) x Goo x Scurvy x Luck x Ed
Fran x Fed x Scurvy x Luck x Ed
Fran x Goo x Scurvy x Tail x Ed
Goo x (Buck, Scurvy) x Luck x Ed
Fed x Scurvy x Luck x Ed
Goo x Scurvy x Tail x Ed
Goo x Scurvy x Luck x Capn

Pretty risky today. Ah, well.

[Pickles]

16:10. Meh. Compared to the AWESOME win Siniri got, it looks pathetic. Congrats, Siniri!

[Siniri]

Thanks, P! It was 96:10, which means Puffo moved from 4 to 5 during the day - a nice little extra on top of an already great win.

Now at 526:240 for the month. Woot!

New day, new bets. Betting kind of blind; had to rush them. Might not want to follow me today... I just trusted my system.

P(24:10-88:10): 53%
EV: 2.71-3.20

Bets:
Goo x Fed x Scurvy x Fran x Ned
Goo x (all in Lagoon) x Fran x Ned
Buck x Fed x Fran x Ned
Goo x Fed x Fran x Ed
(Goo, Buck) x Fran x Ned
Goo x Scurvy x Fran x Ned

[Pickles]

Not spending a lot of time on this today (too exhausted), but here we go:

Goo x (All in Lagoon) x Fran x Ned
Buck x Fed x Fran x Ned
(Buck, Goo, Squire) x Fran x Ned
Goo x Fran x Ed
Goo x Peg x Ned

ETA: Sigh. Another bust.

[Siniri]

I didn't cover either upset in HC/HH; they were just a hair shy on EV. But I certainly wouldn't have covered the double upset, regardless. Can't really complain after yesterday.

New day:
P(16:10-60:10): 67%
EV: 1.74-1.97

Bets:
Tail x Goo
Tail x Goo x Fran
(all in SW) x (Ed, Tail) x Goo

Keep an eye on SW. If one of the 3:1s shifts to 2:1, the potential range would decrease to 12:10-60:10.

Right now, there's a 100% guaranteed-to-profit set:
Puff
Young
Stuff
Goo x (Orvinn, Peg, Ed)
Goo x Tail x (all in SW)

Of course, the range of potential winnings is 11:10-26:10, with a high likelihood of hitting in the lower part of that range... So I recommend going with my bets instead, unless you're really low on NP.

[Pickles]

Unconventional. Probably going to be a bust. Ed was ranging much higher than tail on things, so I'm going for him over Tail. Goo feels super weak today. Better off likely to stick with the (still) safe set) than to follow mine!

(All in SW) x Ed x Goo
Squire x Tail x Goo
Squire x (Puff, Young, Stuff)
Ed x (Young, Stuff)

[Siniri]

Heh, we got the same thing. I took out the Ed x Goo base bet to cover Tail x Goo x Fran to increase my chance of a decent payout since I only did 1 booster arena on Tail, but two of them lost. Ah, well. 36:10 is still a good win.

[Pickles]

Yep, 36:10. Was really hoping for a Young or Stuff upset, as I was reasonably confident in Squire and Ed. Really didn't expect Goo to pull through on that one! Ah well, can't complain about 36!

[Siniri]

P(12:10-40:10): 86%
EV: 1.46-1.84

Bets:
(Scurvy, Fed) x (Goo, Luck)
Ned x Goo
Fed x Goo x (all in Lagoon; Stripe)

A high chance of mediocrity.

[Pickles]

Not really feeling Scurvy or Goo today. Keeping them in a couple, just as a safety, but Luck feels pretty strong, and so does Fed. (AKA, deviating somewhat to go off hunches, though really, it's a toss up between Luck and Goo in the first 20, and similarly between Scurvy and Fed...and Ned is actually even in there, so...<shrugs>).

(Scurvy, Fed) x Goo
(Scurvy, Ned, Stuff) x Luck
Fed x Luck x (all in Lagoon; Orvinn)

Could be pretty low results..but could be spectacular. Guess we'll see. If Fed and Luck hit together, and so does Orvinn...I'm going to be a happy camper.

ETA: Clearly, I was wrong about Scurvy and Goo. Ah well. At least the safety got me a 12:10.

[Blue]

Yep. 12:10. Works for me Beats a blank, eh?

[Siniri]

Yeah, my system wanted me to bet more heavily on Scurvy, but I couldn't and also cover the "base bet" enough to get a decent win. Ah, well. Today looks better:

P(40:10-160:10): 62%
EV: 2.94-3.58

Bets:
Scurvy x Goo x Fran x (all in SW; all in HH)
(Bonnie, Ed) x Goo x Fran

There's so much EV here, it's crazy! I don't think I've had such a high minimum possible win with an overall P(win) greater than 50 before - much less in the 60's. Feels like a trap.