Food Club

[Pickles]

Had to get mine in late, but here they are:

Luck x Fran x Scurvy
(Luck, Bonnie) x Goo x (Scurvy, Ed)
(Buck, Tail) x Luck x Goo x (Scurvy, Ed)
Young x Goo x Scurvy

Decided to leave out TI for safety. Really would like to actually get *any* sort of win in today!

ETA: 24:10 Need a little more before I break even for the month...

[Siniri]

I also got 24:10. I took Fed out of my Bonnie safety in order to cover a few more upsets; kind of kicking myself, because that's not what my system wanted me to do. Ah, well.

[Pickles]

These feel odd, but counting on at least a double upset. Goo feels weak to me today, and it doesn't feel like a 2's day to me. <shrugs> Of course, I could be wrong, but, here we go:

Fair x (Peg, Capn, Orvinn)
Fair x Ned x Ed
Scurvy x Ned x (Peg, Orvinn)
Scurvy x Goo x Ed
Black x (Peg; Ned)
Fran x Ned x Ed

Going to bust, or come out pretty good. Guess we'll see what happens....

[Siniri]

Yeah, today seems weird, and the odds shifts made it even weirder. I came up with the following set after much deliberation, but I'll have to wait until after the gates reopen to place the bets:

EV: 1.13-1.64

Bets:
(Ned, Goo) x Peg
Goo x (Orvinn, Capn)
(Ned, Luck) x Ed
Scurvy x (Ned, Goo) x Ed
(Fair, Fran) x Goo x Ed

Edit: won 24:10. Glad I managed to win something.

[Pickles]

Sigh. System fail. Even the Fran bet I did include was number 103. Bleh. Bust #9 for this month. Seriously #9. I've busted almost as many times as I've come home with anything. At this rate, I'll be lucky if I break even!

[Siniri]

P(8:10-84:10): 55%
EV: 1.71-2.40

Bets:
(Fran, Tail, Ed) x Goo x Scurvy x Fed
Fran x Buck x Scurvy x Fed
Goo x Scurvy x (Fran, Tail, Ed; Fed)
Buck x Scurvy x Fed
Goo x Scurvy

Lots of nested bets today. Sometimes I get lucky on days like today. Other times, I still manage to bust. I'm a little worried about Young in HC, and Stripe in HH is a 3:1 (even though he probably shouldn't be), so the set's basically another coin flip.

[Pickles]

(Fran, Tail, Ed) x Goo x Scurvy x Fed
Fran x Goo x (Orvinn, Young) x Fed
Goo x Scurvy x (Bonnie, Stripe)
(Buck, Goo) x Squire
Buck x Scurvy x Fed

Meh. Added the Squire bets on a hunch, but I've got this bad feeling that Black is going to pull out of nowhere and bust my set. Just didn't have enough bets to cover what I wanted to.

ETA: 12:10. Not a great win, but at least it wasn't a bust!!

[Siniri]

16:10
Not too shabby. My system had four positive arenas (the two with 3:1s were barely so), while others only had two, so they won bigger with multiple booster arenas (vs. me winning on a safety). But that's okay; my system works great in the long run.

New bets:
P(6:10-64:10): 73%
EV: 1.29-1.89

Bets:
Goo x (Black, Stuff)
Goo x Ed x (all in SW, all in HC)

Alternative: replace HC boosters with (Lagoon - Capn), and add (Fed, Fran) to the Goo x Black safety (to increase minimum possible win, decreasing slightly the overall P(win)).

[Pickles]

Not 100% feeling today. I particularly don't like Goo - he's won a LOT lately - much more than his average. While I'm not 100% sure about the others in his arena, It feels like an upset day for him.
Black hasn't won in a while, nor has he won a lot in the last 30 days (3, maybe 4 times, which is well below his average), so I'm putting some weight on him, too, instead of Ed.

So...I'm going to go a bit risky. I'm expecting a bust, but I'm playing off my gut almost 100% today. Recommend to NOT follow.

(Fair, Ned) x (Ed, Black)
Goo x Black
(all in HC) x Black
Squire x Stuff

Yeah, don't ask about the Squire x Stuff bet. I have no idea why I'm doing it. Probably will come to a wasted bet. I just wanted to include Stuff, and not just by himself, and so I picked the one that has been the longest since they won in HC and paired him up. (AKA, today is really a totally unfounded set of bets day).

ETA: 26:10

And with that, I am FINALLY net positive for the rest of the month. Here's hoping I can get at least some decent winnings from here on out!

[Siniri]

Wow, Pickles! Congrats on pulling that upset off. I stuck to my system, which called for 10-betting Gooblah, and Fair's food allowance + strength really shouldn't have been enough for the upset. More shenanigans, I'm sure...

Total bust for me, of course. Down to 80% net profit for the month thus far, a bit below my long-term average, but there's time to turn it around.

Edit: (Just not if we keep getting mediocre days like today... *sigh*) New bets:
P(16:10-44:10): 57%
EV: 1.26-1.62

Bets:
Fran x (Stripe, Bonnie) x Ned
(Tail, Fed) x Stripe x Ned
Fran x Stripe x Fair
Fran x Stripe x (HC - Peg) x Ned
(Orvinn, Stripe) x Ned

Didn't have room for any double safeties. Here's hoping nothing too wonky happens.

[Pickles]

Thanks, Siniri. I was a bit surprised on it, to say the least. I really thought I'd bust.

Deviating a bit today, as some people haven't won in too long of a time for my taste.

Fran x (All in TI) x Ned
(Fed, Tail) x Stripe x Ned
Fran x Stripe x Fair
(Fran, Stripe) x Stuff
Squire x Ned

ETA: Dangit. Messed up a bet, and put in Tail x Stripe x Fair instead of Fran x Stripe x Fair. Ugh. Taking off the Fran x Stuff and replacing it with Fran x Stripe x Fair to cover that.

[Siniri]

24:10 on the Orvinn safety

Glad I took Fran out of that safety; I wanted to increase my overall P(win).

[Pickles]

Busted. I should've left in the straight Orvinn and Bonnie x Ned bets, but I replaced them with other safeties. Ah well.

Not betting yet, but based on opening odds, there's a slight potential for a "can't lose" set, if any one of the 2:1's bump up to 3:1. If you want to play it safe, watch for that. HH would be the initial set (bets of Ed, Tail, Puff), then HC for the secondary (bets of Goo x Stuff, Bonnie, Buck), then Goo x Fran x (other arena). Of course, currently, there's the potential to come out 8:10, but like I said, if *any* 2:1 bumps up to 3:1...yeah.

Squire's due for a win (or three). Just sayin'. That will probably be reflected in my bets when I make them tomorrow.

[Siniri]

P(28:10-84:10): 71%
EV: 2.40-3.18

Bets:
(Peg, Ned) x (Fran, Buck) x Goo
Squire x Fran x Goo
(all in SW) x Ned x Fran x Goo
Fran x Goo

I triple-checked, but that P(win) + that range is correct. Feels like a trap, somehow...

[Blue]

Thanks Siniri. Trap or not, I had the time this morning to place my bets