Ok, so let's hypothesize that a zombie outbreak ocurrs in mainland USA, with spread similar to the 'rage' virus, IE essentially no incubation period, 30 seconds from blood to blood contact to full-blown human-chewing goodness. Presumably with an outbreak in one area, with say 3-5 cases (as in the original 28 days later), the virus would spread exponentially, with the rate of increase of infection depending on the population density of the surrounding area. For this case, let's assume relatively high density, eg. Chicago, of around 4,900 people per square kilometre.
With a idle speed of 4km/h and a running speed of 30km/h (slower than a sprinter, but fast) we can posit that the zombies (assuming the walk when there is no humans obvious to consume, and run when they chase or are after something) could cross the sqaure kilometre at walking pace in 20-25 min and at running speed in 2-5 minutes, conservatively. Presuming the zombies don't need rest stops or hydration breaks, this seems to be about right.
Let's say that the Zombies each see one person, chase them down (the people not currently aware at what is going on would offer essentially no organised resistance, some taken completely by surprise) and bite them, producing say, 4 more zombies, for a total of 8. The second generation can then target family members, on average 4 each, producing a third generation of 16 and a total of 24 zombies. Spreading from a generally localised area, this initial phase would be relatively rapid.
We assume that there is no official response for a minimum of four hours. 911 calls of 'my own family is attacking me' are received over this period, and after several similar calls the 911 operators would determine something is going on, and perhaps report it to their superiors. However, the superiors are unlikely to collate with each other, and unlikely to report to their superiors about what they could only term, at this point, 'wide spread domestic violence in a localised area'. Either way, few 911 calls would take place in the first hour, as most victims here would not have enough time.
Institutions would be slow to mobilise. Initially, police 'on the beat' would be prone to investigate. If working in pairs, both are likely to walk towards something vaguely threatening, perhaps with guns drawn. Given a solid 50% chance of getting a radio broadcast out before being 'turned' (they are unlikely to shoot the first zombie they see, as they are not trained to shoot first, ask questions later), if the police operator does hear about the attack, will simply send more police units into the area. If they don't, a further delay before the police are aware takes place, but only a little, as unresponsive police units draw similar attention to units requesting help.
Assuming, with a delay of 15 minutes before more cops are sent in, more zombies would be on the streets and the police would be on higher alert, but still unlikely to shoot first. Faster updates back to base would be expected, and even if all police were killed, the base operators and chiefs would still have a much better idea. Nevertheless, no explicit instructions for such a scenario are clear, and the chief at the base is likely to assume there is some kind of unusual riot or extensive criminal activity going on, as they would most likely not jump to the conclusion of ZOOOOOMBIEZ!!!
Hospitals, in this particular case, would not be all that useful. Turning into zombies in 30 seconds doesn't leave room for hospital care, and while ambulances might cart victims with secondary wounds (eg, I got hurt while fighting my neighbour, who tried to bite me, but he didn't manage to) to the hospitals, the majority of the victims in the rapidly expanding "zombie zone" would just turn into more zombies, bypassing the hospital system entirely. Even the victims who say, "my family went nuts and attacked me" are not going to garner all that much attention from Doctors, whose main focus is on making sure those people don't die.
Anyway, presuming the third generation of 24 is in place 30 minutes after Case Zero infection, the number of zombies rapidly increases. With a running speed of 30km/hour zombies would then spread fast across the area (most likely randomly in essentially all directions, once there are enough zombies, and no major geographical features in the way). Assuming each zombie, on average, gets one person every 5 minutes, (taking into the averaging effect of countering multiple killings in one house, and a zombie who has to walk 5km for his next victim) after 60 minutes from the third generation (90 minutes from Case Zero) the population is in excess of one thousand. Remember, this is dense population, so there is almost no limit on population
in early population growth.
There would be various plateaus achieved as geography gets in the way, or large gaps (IE a park) between victims, but this is countered by unusually dense areas such as sharehouses and apartment blocks being 'zombinated' in a very short time, but 1000 after 90 minutes is still a conservative figure.
This leads me to downgrade my 'official reponse' time from 4 to 2 hours, as by this point, things would be going haywire. After 120 minutes, it would be likely that some sort of notification takes place, telling people to stay inside their homes and places of works, as there is some kind of medical crisis going on.
Larger-scale police mobilisation might begin to take place, but generally by 120 minutes, with population exploding, police would be surrounded, with no effective area to 'attack', more than anything defending in a small and raidply decreasing circle as "they're coming from everywhere" mentality takes over, and they retreat to the station or some other locale, and call for backup.
At around 2 and a half hours, some sort of rapidly expanding area would be infected, of say, 10km in diametre, perhaps more, as zombies would double back and move around, clearing out areas already passed through. Saturation would occurr as the area got larger, with a higher chance of zombies doubling back, taking out stragglers behind the main front. Zombies would be focused on the circumference of the circle in different areas, leading to random lulls and random bursts in growth.
Next come riot police, called in by terrified police, who would be called to particular locations within the circle but would most likely see zombies before they reach the area, and would therefore be confused as to what is going on. Even riot police who start to attempt to stop a 'front' of a hundred zombies would be unsure, used to crowd control tactics, and unused to people hurling themselves at the line, instead of just staying back. Rates of infection here would be low, with all the cool armour, but the occasional policeman would get infected, thus attacking his comrades from within, further confusing and demoralising the police, causing cross-fire and certain 'blue-on-blue' situations, as well as distrust, eventually rendering efforts hopeless, as the police would fall back to escape the inexorable spread of the zombies and their infected friends, eventually in some cases only to come across more zombies.
As riot police call in the situation, further up the chain of command, through the police commisioners, heads of local government and governor of states learn of what is going on, confused, but heeding the call of the police to call out the national guard or the military.
At this point I will take a short break from what I'm writing to finishing the assignment I'm supposed to be doing. My girlfriend (sitting next to me) is getting more and more annoyed, and so I'll have to do it.
Feel free to tell me what you think, and I'll change my argument if you make a convincing point against me. Otherwise, I'll continue on soonish with the deployment of the National Guard, and eventually the military, which I believe, therefore, would be ultimately ineffective.
Please remember that I'm looking at a pretty worst-case scenario here, with high population, rapid incubation and rapid movement, so don't attack my initial assumptions, but feel free to go after my extrapolations (especially my maths, lol).
I'll keep it coming soon enough.
EDIT: That was EPIC.
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