For Neopets ONLY discussion.
Sat Nov 26, 2016 11:47 pm
P(16:10-120:10): 55%
EV: 3.12-4.63
Bets:
Luck x Scurvy x (Fran, Bonnie) x Buck x Goo
Luck x Scurvy x (all in HC) x Goo
Ned x Scurvy x Buck x Goo
Luck x Tail x Buck x Goo
(Luck, Ned) x Scurvy x Fran x Goo
Days like today are nearly always a trap. Except when they're not, which is why I can never help betting them aggressively.
(The odds must have shifted since P placed her bets... that's the only downfall of my system, because EV is so dependent on the current odds as the best predictor of the closing odds.)
Edit: The only arena I didn't safety (the one with the highest-P pirate) is of course the only one that had an upset, so I busted. It was a trap!
Sun Nov 27, 2016 6:21 pm
New day, new bets...
P(12:10-30:10): ~80%
EV: 0.85-1.46 (Scurvy moved from 3 to 2; hopefully he moves back)
Bets:
Goo x (TI - Bonnie; all in HC; HH - Fair)
10-betting Gooblah again. Let's hope he took some Bloat-Be-Gone since yesterday.
Sun Nov 27, 2016 6:29 pm
Busted yesterday. Bets for today:
Peg
Goo x (Scurvy, Buck)
Goo x Tail x (All in HH; HC - Fair)
Mon Nov 28, 2016 11:21 pm
16:10 thanks to a disadvantageous odds shift. At least it's positive.
Edit:
P(16:10-a bunch): 40%
EV: 2.03-2.80
Bets:
Goo x (Buck, Fed) x Young x Scurvy x Ed
Goo x Buck x Young x Fran x Ed
Goo x Young x (Scurvy; Buck) x (Bonnie, Ed)
Goo x (Fed; Fran) x Young x Ed
Goo x Young x Bonnie
Didn't have enough time to pick a less risky set. Hopefully I win something...
ETA: Won 64:10. Woot!
Tue Nov 29, 2016 7:25 pm
4:10 yesterday, 64:10 today.
Literally got home 5 minutes before bets went in, didn't have time to do anything except copy Siniri's bets...which payed off beautifully! Thanks, Siniri!
ETA: A bit risky, and not covering as many safeties as I'd like, but....
Fed x (Bonnie, Young) x Stripe
Luck x Goo x Stripe x (Tail; Buck)
Fed x Goo x (Puff, Ed, Stripe) x Tail
Fed x Goo x Stripe x Tail x Buck
Fed x Goo x Stripe x (Scurvy, Ned)
Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:01 pm
Rushed to get bets in:
P(16:10-104:10): 48%
EV: 2.27-3.06
Bets:
Fed x Goo x Stripe x Tail x (Buck, Fair)
Luck x Goo x Stripe x (Tail; Buck)
Fed x Goo x (Puff, Ed) x Tail
Fed x Goo x Stripe x (Tail, Scurvy, Fran; Buck)
Edit: Busted thanks to Orvinn taking SW. He cost me 48:10 (if Luck had won instead) or 56:10 (if Fed had). Oh, well. Tomorrow's another day.
Wed Nov 30, 2016 5:07 pm
New day, new bets...
P(12:10-54:10): 88%
EV: 1.44-1.92
Bets:
(Goo, Fran) x (Peg, Orvinn, Fed)
Goo x Fed x (all in HC)
Large P(mediocrity).
Wed Nov 30, 2016 7:14 pm
Meh. Don't really like what the options are, but here goes:
Fran x (Peg, Orvinn, Fed)
Goo x (Bonnie, Tail) x (Peg, Orvinn, Fed)
Goo x Fed x Buck
Thu Dec 01, 2016 3:17 am
12:10 on the safety. Cost me a 28:10 had Goo pulled it off. Oh, well. Managed 635:290 for the month.
Thu Dec 01, 2016 6:52 pm
12:10 as well. Didn't do nearly as well for the whole month, though.
Today's bets:
Young x Tail x Fed
Goo x (Bonnie, Capn) x Fed
Goo x (Bonnie, Capn) x Buck
Goo x Tail x (Buck, Fran, Luck ) x Fed
Goo x Tail x (Peg; Stripe)
Thu Dec 01, 2016 11:29 pm
P(12:10-56:10): 57%
EV: 1.29-2.46
Bets:
Goo x Tail x (Buck, Luck, Fran) x Fed
Goo x Tail x (Buck, Fran) x Scurvy
Goo x Tail x (Fed, Stripe, Scurvy)
Goo x (Bonnie, Capn) x Fed
I wanted to cover the Young safety, but there was no room.
Edit: 36:10
Sat Dec 03, 2016 1:37 am
36:10 yesterday.
Meh on today. Almost not worth betting.
Stuff
Luck
Goo x (All in SW) x (Buck, Fed)
ETA: 12:10
Better than nothing...
Sat Dec 03, 2016 4:32 am
New day, new bets:
P(16:10-32:10): 78%
EV: 1.45-1.55
Bets:
Goo x (Scurvy, Bonnie)
(all in SW) x (Buck, Fed) x Goo
And the form didn't submit... Oops. Had them in relatively early, too. Anyway, I won 16:10.
Sat Dec 03, 2016 2:39 pm
New day, new bets (for 12/3):
P(24:10-144:10): 50%
EV: 1.80-2.90
Bets:
Buck x (Tail, Fed) x Luck x Goo
Buck x (all in Lagoon) x Scurvy x Luck x Goo
(Young, Ned) x Scurvy x Luck x Goo
(Buck, Young) x Scurvy x Black x Goo
Going a bit risky today, but the odds were too good not to go for it.
Sun Dec 04, 2016 2:02 am
Currently, today is a "special" day. With this set of bets, you'll break even at worst. Keep in mind that Fed and Tail are both up; you could lose out some if Tail drops back down to a 4:1.
Fair
Peg
Ed
Goo x (Stuff, Fed, Tail)
Goo x Scurvy x (All in Lagoon)
Will edit in my own bets in a minute.
ETA:
My set for today:
Buck x (Puff; Fed, Tail) x Luck x Goo
Buck x (Stripe, Bonnie, Fran) x Scurvy x Luck x Goo
Buck x Scurvy x Black x Goo
Scurvy x Orvinn x Goo
(Ned, Young) x Scurvy x Luck x Goo
ETA2: Bah. Botched putting them in, and ended up with a Buck x Scurvy x Luck x Goo. Took out the Buck x Puff x Luck x Goo.
ETA3: Busted. Puff, Tail, and Black. I had a Buck x Tail x Black x Goo as bet #15. Ah well.
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