For Neopets ONLY discussion.
Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:32 pm
Yeah, the same bet was my number 11, Pickles... I only had room for one double safety, and I went with the one with the highest P. Oh, well... I knew I was flipping a coin.
New day, new bets:
P(12:10-54:10): 61%
EV: 1.20-2.20
Bets:
(Black, Fair) x Goo x (Luck, Fed)
Puff x Goo x Luck
Fran x Goo x (Stripe, Fed)
Fran x (Buck, Ed, Bonnie) x Goo x Luck
Sun Dec 04, 2016 7:13 pm
Don't trust Goo as far as I could throw him today. Don't know why...just a feeling. Pulling in safeties for it that feeling, and leaving out the TI boosters.
Fran x (All in HC) x Luck
(Fair, Puff, Black) x Goo x Luck
Fran x Goo x Stripe
Fair x (Tail, Ned)
Mon Dec 05, 2016 6:16 pm
32:10 on the Ed booster. Woot!
New day, new bets:
P(16:10-40:10): 70%
EV: 1.21-1.68
Bets:
Goo x Ned
Stripe x Scurvy
(Fed, Tail) x Goo x (Scurvy, Ned)
(all in Lagoon) x Goo x Scurvy
Relatively safe set, though Blackbeard looks really strong for a 13:1 in SW.
Last edited by
Siniri on Mon Dec 05, 2016 7:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Tue Dec 06, 2016 12:09 am
8:10 yesterday.
Still don't trust Goo. Stripe looks pretty strong today. I know it's a long shot, but I'm going to bet heavier on him than Goo.
(Fed, Tail) x Goo x (Scurvy, Ned)
Stripe x (Scurvy, Peg, Ned)
(Fed, Tail; Ed) x Stripe x Scurvy
ETA: 12:10
I still don't trust Goo. But, he keeps winning anyways. I'm still not gonna 10-bet on him anytime soon, though, that's for sure.
Tue Dec 06, 2016 3:31 am
18:10
Tue Dec 06, 2016 5:19 pm
Not ideal, but here we go:
Buck x (Ed, Scurvy) x Bonnie
Goo x Ed x (Stripe, Bonnie)
Goo x Orvinn x Bonnie
Goo x Scurvy x (Stripe, Black)
Goo x Scurvy x (Fran, Fed, Fair) x Bonnie
Tue Dec 06, 2016 11:17 pm
P(8:10-42:10): 71%
EV: 1.32-2.19
Bets:
(Goo, Buck) x (Ed, Scurvy) x Bonnie
Goo x Orvinn x Bonnie
Goo x Scurvy x (Stripe, Black)
Buck x Scurvy x Stripe
Goo x Scurvy x (Luck, Young) x Bonnie
If I bet based on food adjustments and strength alone, I wouldn't have had any safeties at all... but I bet on EV, so I have lots of safeties instead.
Edit: Bah! I covered 3 double safeties on top of the 4 single safeties... so of course it was a longer-shot double upset (bet 55 in my list... I only covered up to bet 28). And then a kadoatie stole another 5k from me. Because JS. (I blame everything on JS nowadays...)
Wed Dec 07, 2016 12:49 am
Bah. I knew go was going down to Buck today. I pulled the Buck bets up from way down on my list as it was. Should've been heavier on Buck than Goo, I guess. Hindsight's 20-20 though, oh well.
Wed Dec 07, 2016 7:57 pm
My bets:
P(6:10-36:10): 92%
EV: 0.68-1.12
Bets:
(Orvinn, Fed) x (Fair, Buck, Tail)
Goo x (Fair, Tail)
(Scurvy, Young) x Goo x Buck
Note: I'm hoping the 3:1s in the positive arenas move to 4:1; if they do, all bets will be positive.
If you'd like to skip the more negative bets, use this set instead:
P(12:10-36:10): 50%
EV: 0.98-1.12
(Orvinn, Goo) x (Fair, Buck)
(Scurvy, Black, Young) x Goo x (Fair, Buck)
Or maybe just not bet today... There's a pretty big chance you'll lose today, with not a lot of room for gain.
Thu Dec 08, 2016 12:52 am
Going a little on the riskier side:
(Goo, Orvinn) x (Fair, Buck, Tail)
Bonnie x (Goo, Orvinn) x (Fair, Buck)
ETA: 12:10
Thu Dec 08, 2016 3:27 pm
I also won 12:10. It's funny, I often feel disappointed on days like today for hurting my average, even though it increases my NP. I'm trying to focus on the NP - and remember that about half my winnings fall below the average (and a 12 brings it down a lot less than a 0 does!).
Edit:
P(16:10-80:10): 53%
EV: 1.29-2.84
Bets:
(Goo, Bonnie) x Ned x Scurvy x (Ed, Luck)
Goo x Buck x Scurvy x (Ed, Luck)
Bonnie x Buck x Scurvy x Ed
Goo x Ned x Scurvy x (HC - Squire) x Ed
You could omit the 3 boosters (last line) and replace with Goo Ned Scurvy Young, Goo Ned Tail Ed, and Goo Ned Scurvy (P(win)=59%).
Fri Dec 09, 2016 12:21 am
Playing it relatively safe. Relatively. Not 100% happy with this set, but what can you do? Sometimes I wish we could have 15 bets instead...
Goo x Ned x Scurvy x (Ed, Young, Luck)
Goo x Ned x Stuff
Goo x Buck x Scurvy
Goo x Ned x (Tail, Peg, Black)
Bonnie x (Buck, Ned) x Scurvy
ETA: 52:10
Wou'dve been 104:10 if I hadn't been a tad iffy about Scurvy...but that would've been way below my max bet, so I didn't bother, and left Scurvy out. Nice to catch Stuff on an upset, though!
Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:07 am
0:10
Wish I'd gone with my safer alternatives (I would have at least recouped most of my money at 8:10). Congrats, Pickles!
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