Food Club [Split 1]

[Pickles]

Luck didn't even show up for an option until bet 35 for me. Still managed a 20:10, though, so at least it wasn't a total loss. Congrats on the good win, Siniri!

ETA: Today is another special day (at this point.) This set of bets will get you a minimum of 12:10 (unless Luck goes back to a 4, he's currently a 6).

(Stripe, Squire, Capn)
Goo x (Stuff, Orvinn, Luck)
Goo x Scurvy x (All in Shipwreck)


My set for the day:
Bonnie x (Luck, Scurvy) x Goo
Tail x Luck x Goo
Luck x Goo
(All in SW) x Tail x Scurvy x Goo
(Scurvy, Luck) x Squire

Squire looks pretty strong, and Goo has won for the last 8 days straight. I know neither of those has anything to do with anything, but I hate 10-betting!

ETA again: Well, crud. I didn't realize my mouse slipped, and I put in a Luck x Capn. Taking out the Luck x Goo to cover it. Sigh.

[Siniri]

Realized I hadn't bet yet at 2:38pm NST. Managed to finish betting by 2:43pm NST. Guess I should have taken 30 seconds to check this thread; I might have chosen P's special set instead just due to the time crunch. Ah, well... Trusting the system on these:

Bets:
Tail x Luck x Goo
Luck x Goo
(all in SW) x Tail x Scurvy x Goo)
(all in SW) x Scurvy x Goo

Edit: Woot! 36:10. Not too bad. I'm now exactly double for the month... Now let's keep it there.

[Pickles]

24:10

At least I didn't lose anything on my messed up bet! I still need an extra 30 to double for the month. Three more days to do it...

[Siniri]

P(24:10-98:10): 66%
EV: 1.87-2.52

Bets:
(Goo, Black) x (Bonnie, Buck) x Fed
Goo x Ned x Fed
Capn x Buck x Fed
Goo x Buck x (all in HC) x Fed)

I would normally skip Black-Bonnie-Fed (98:10, 2.5%, EV=2.48) in favor of the higher-P Goo-Buck-Squire (36:10, 5.6%, EV=2.01), but I didn't because both Black and Bonnie are strong for their odds. Feel free to make the substitution (in the next 30 minutes, oy... Sorry, I'll try to be better about making my bets earlier).

Edit: Arrrgggghhh! A 98:10 won - but it was Black x Ned, not Black x Bonnie. *sigh* I skipped that one because its EV was basically the same as the 3x more likely Capn safety. *double sigh*

Edit 10/30 bets:
P(8:10-24:10): 84%
EV: 0.97-1.53

Bets:
(all in SW) x Bonnie x Goo
Ned x (Buck, Scurvy) x Goo
Bonnie x (Buck, Scurvy) x Fed
Young x Goo
Ned x Fed

Yuck. Large chance of mediocrity. I wanted to go all in on Fed, but I followed my system. Probably a good day to skip...

[Pickles]

Deviating. Fed looks strong, and Goo has had a lot of wins lately (except yesterday)

(All in SW) x Bonnie x Fed
(Young, Ned) x (Fed, Goo)
Bonnie x (Buck, Scurvy) x Goo

ETA: 32:10 on the Young x Fed safety. Definitely not complaining.

[Siniri]

*sigh* Should have gone all-in on Fed like I wanted to. The Young x Fed double safety was 4 bets below the lowest-EV one I placed... This is the second day in a row, but at least the third time recently that I've covered the wrong combination of multiple safeties. It's really getting old.

[Pickles]

Going against my better judgement and 10-betting on goo.

Goo x Young x (Stuff; Luck)
Goo x (All in Lagoon) x Luck)
Goo x Scurvy x (HH - Luck)
Goo x Scurvy x Stuff

[Siniri]

P(16:10-104:10): 72%
EV: 2.30-2.94

Bets:
Goo x Scurvy x (all in HH)
Goo x Young x (Luck, Ed)
Goo x (all in Lagoon) x Scurvy x Luck

Didn't skip any safeties today, but with the way my luck has been lately, I'm sure It'll be a Young x (Bonnie or Squire)...

Edit: 12:10 (Young fell back down to 3:1, and it was already my lowest possible winning bet... *sigh*)

Finished the month at 570:309, "only" 84.5% net profit. (I got spoiled by my 8+ month 100%+ net profit streak, but I knew it had to end sometime...)

[Pickles]

12:10 today.

Finished the month at 574:300 (missed betting a couple days ago). Not too bad, considering how badly the month started!

[Siniri]

P(10:10-26:10): 69% (additional 18% P of 7:10)
EV: 1.15-1.60

Bets:
Goo x (all in SW, Fair, all in HC)
Buck

Huge potential for mediocrity today... Let's just hope it's the "Wheel of Monotony" kind of luck (it's the most profitable of the four basic wheels).

[Pickles]

Putting them in fast, mostly following system with a couple extra safeties over boosters.

Buck x (Fair, Young, Bonnie)
Goo x (Stuff, Fair, Young)
Goo x Bonnie x (all in HC)


ETA: 42:10 Woot. Good start for the month!

[Siniri]

You boostered your safety. I did not because the EVs were just too low... so I only got 7:10. This is the fourth day of my bad luck streak. Hopefully tomorrow the pirates will be nice to me.

New bets:
P(12:10-54:10): 84%
EV: 1.21-1.82

Bets:
(Scurvy, Goo, Fran) x Tail x Bonnie
(Luck, Fair, Tail) x (Stripe, Bonnie)
Tail x Young

Congrats, Oliver and Lex on the official trophies! (And you were fretting you'd "never" manage that upgrade... it always seems to happen right after you give up hope. Congrats again!)

(FYI, if I ever post something called "gambit" or a "VH" in here, it's because I copy-paste from the FC competition - it's irrelevant in deciding whether to copy my bets, so just ignore it.)

[Pickles]

System actually had the Buck x Bonnie bet yesterday as #3. I was skeptical and added the other two Buck boosters...but clearly I didn't need to!

Luck x (Bonnie, Young, Stripe)
Tail x (Young, Stripe)
(All in SW) x Tail x Bonnie
Fair x Bonnie

ETA: 12:10 on Tail x Stripe. I guess Stripe closed at a 6? At least Siniri, you got the same and didn't bust today!

[Siniri]

Well, the odds must have been different when you bet, Pickles - that happens a lot, actually.

I originally had the Scurvy x Tail x Stripe bet as well as the single safety, but given my recent luck, I decided to cover more safeties... so of course I only got 12:10. I just need to stick with the system!

[Pickles]

Oh, I know the odds change. I was worried more that it would go back down to a 4. I just checked on DAQTools first, and they show Stripe closing at a 5.

ETA:
Deviating a little on hunches. Basically, dropping a could boosters to cover some different things. Orvinn, Squire, Peg, and Stuff all have me worried today.

Scurvy x (HC - Bonnie)
Goo x Squire
(All in SW) x Goo x Stripe
(Buck; Black) x Goo x Orvinn