Food Club [Split 1]

[Siniri]

Oh, my reference to the odds changing was about the fact that your win from two days ago was bet 3 according to the system... Buck was way below Goo when I bet; I considered boostering him, but the system told me not to (he must have shifted to 4:1 after I bet...). (Yesterday, Stripe was at 6 when I bet and obviously closed at 6, so I wasn't worried about that... just wish I'd trusted the system more.)

Anyway. New bets:
P(14:10-40:10): 65%
EV: 1.12-1.46

Bets:
(Buck, Fed) x Goo x (Stripe, Bonnie)
(all in Lagoon) x Goo x Stripe
Scurvy x (Stripe, Bonnie)

Edit: 16:10 on the boostered safety. P, you didn't cover Bonnie at all? He looked really strong in his arena (just barely behind Stripey).

Edit 2 (new bets for 11/4):
P(24:10-88:10): 71%
EV: 2.45-2.72

Bets:
(Scurvy, Young) x Goo x (Fair, Stripe)
Peg x Goo x Fair
Scurvy x Buck x Fair
Scurvy x Goo x (all in HC) x Fair

[Pickles]

Ditching the base bet of Scurvy x Goo x Fair to cover Scurvy x Buck x Stripe, otherwise, same as Siniri's. Will have to get them in in 20 minutes or so...

Young x Goo x (Fair, Stripe)
Scurvy x Goo x Stripe
Scurvy x Buck x (Fair, Stripe)
Scurvy x Goo x (all in HC) x Fair
Peg x Goo x Fair

ETA: Bah. Busted again. Wish I'd had more time to look and pay attention, I've had my eyes on Squire for the last couple days. Ah well. Here's hoping for a better tomorrow.

[Siniri]

That was frustrating... I can't stand those 13:1 wins. Anyway:

P(10:10-56:10): 78%
EV: 1.14-1.35

Bets:
(Ed, Scurvy) x (Fran, Bonnie)
Scurvy x Luck
(Stripe, Buck) x Fran
Scurvy x (HC - Capn) x Fran

Edit: It was a 2sday... Been a while since one of those. Since I covered a lot of safeties, I only got 12:10.

New bets: As of right now, there's not a single positive pirate, so I recommend not betting today. If I have time, I'll reevaluate closer to the round's end.

[Pickles]

I neglected to put in bets yesterday, and I'm kinda sorry that I did, because the set I had ready to go (and was distracted from) would've net me 24:10. Ah well.

Here's for today:
Fran x (Stripe, Cap) x Luck
Fran x Scurvy x Fair
(Ed, Stuff) x Scurvy x Luck
Fran x Scurvy x Luck x (Bonnie; All in HH)

[Siniri]

P(36:10-104:10): 57%
EV: 2.70-3.44

Bets:
Fran x Scurvy x (Luck, Fair)
Fran x Stripe x Luck
Fran x Scurvy x Luck x (SW - Tail; all in HH)

I considered skipping the base bet for a Capn or Ed safety, but both are really weak for their P, so I couldn't justify sacrificing that much EV for a slightly higher overall P(win).

[Pickles]

Well, following almost completely blindly paid off today. 52:10 on the Capn safety, whew!

ETA: Following almost blindly today again. Took ou tthe Goo boosters on a couple of bets, just to play it a little safer.

Buck x Scurvy x (all in HC) x Fed
Buck x (Fran, Tail) x (Fed, Peg)
Buck x Scurvy x Peg
Young x Scurvy x Fed

[Siniri]

P(16:10-84:10): 59%
EV: 2.61-2.86

Bets:
Young x Scurvy x Goo x Fed
Buck x (Fran, Tail) x Goo x Fed
Buck x Scurvy x (all in HC) x Fed
Buck x Scurvy x Goo x Peg
Buck x (Fran, Tail) x Fed

[Pickles]

40:10

Can't complain!

[Siniri]

Also got 40:10

New day, new bets:
P(16:10-72:10): 64%
EV: 1.59-2.23

Bets:
Buck x Fran x (Black, Fed)
Buck x Goo x (Black, Peg)
Buck x (Capn, Ned) x Fed
(Scurvy, Fair) x Goo x Fed
Buck x Goo x (Luck, Tail) x Fed

Had to drop the base bet to cover one of the safeties... Betting kind of blind thanks to the Daq being down (though I was able to get the starting odds from the boards).

[Pickles]

Daq! You're making me feel totally lost! Sigh. Also betting mostly blind. Modified some on hunches (took out boosters and covered more direct items), but....ugh.

(Fair, Buck, Scurvy) x Goo x Fed
Scurvy x Goo x Black
Scurvy x Fran x Fed
Buck x Fran x (Black, Peg, Fed)
Buck x Goo x (Black, Peg)

ETA: 28:10. Definitely not complaining!

[Siniri]

Also 28:10. Finally up to a semi-respectable 44% for the month.

[Pickles]

Meh. Still flying relatively blind, but here we go:

Bonnie x (Fed, Fran, Scurvy; Buck, Ed) x Goo
Ned x Fed x (Buck, Ed) x Goo
Ned x (Fran, Scurvy) x Ed x Goo
Ned x Fed x Ed x Stripe

[Siniri]

P(16:10-72:10): 56%
EV: 1.97-2.82

Bets:
Ned x Fed x Buck x Goo
Ned x (Fran, Scurvy, Fed) x Ed x Goo
(Bonnie, Fair) x Fed x Ed x Goo
Ned x Fed x Ed x Stripe
(Fran, Fed) x Buck x Goo
Fran x Ed x Goo

Edit: Busted thanks to two different long shots winning.

New day, new bets! Daq is back, but they missed the starting odds. (You can find them on the Neoboards.)

I came up with two different sets and chose to go with the one with the higher minimum win. Hopefully I don't end up regretting it!

P(16:10-96:10): 78%
EV: 1.98-2.91

(Fair, Capn) x (Bonnie, Goo) x Scurvy
Fed x Bonnie x Scurvy
Ed x Scurvy
Fed x Goo x Scurvy x (all in HH)

The set I originally considered covers the Ed double safeties (not a good option for older accounts because of the 1M win limit per bet):

P(12:10-182:10): 78%
EV: 2.14-2.91

Bets:
(Fair, Capn, Fed) x (Bonnie, Goo, Ed) x Scurvy
Goo x Scurvy

Note the identical P(win) with wider range of possible outcomes (but 12:10 being the most likely at 31%). Given I only had to sacrifice a little EV, it seemed worth increasing that minimum win and reducing its probability.

[Pickles]

Busted yesterday, ah well.

The first set Siniri posted is what I came up with, ironically.

(Fair, Capn) x (Bonnie, Goo) x Scurvy
Fed x Bonnie x Scurvy
Fed x Goo x Scurvy x (all in HH)
Ed x Scurvy

Although, I don't like 10-betting...but Scurvy looks like the most likely anyways.

ETA: 28:10

[Siniri]

I would have gotten 28:10 with either set, so no harm, no foul.

P(14:10-48:10): 74%
EV: 1.66-2.02

Bets:
Goo x Ed
Fed x Buck
(Goo x Buck) x (all in TI, all in HC)

Boring set today. Hopefully it pays off decently.