Pink Poogle Toy Forum

New Split! Previous thread here.

Busted yesterday. Ah well.

Today:
(All in SW) x Squire
(Puff, Fair) x (Young, Capn)
Black x (Squire, Peg) x Young

Managed 8:10; would have been 12:10 if I hadn't swapped the Luck x Young "base bet" with the Luck x Capn safety at the last minute to cover a bit more. I'm now exactly even for the month. *sigh*

Today looks a little better.

P(16:10-36:10): 61%
EV: 1.11-1.61

Bets:
(Fed, Ed) x Buck
(Fed, Ed) x Buck x (all in HC)

Busted. System says Luck look strong (with Fed being a backup - first bet with ed is in the 170's), so going with it.

(Luck, Fed) x Bonnie
(Fed, Luck) x Buck x (All in HC)

ETA: 12:10
Better than nothing, at least!

16:10

It's a win... Somehow, winning less than 18:10 feels like a loss, though, because that's kind of my benchmark (lately, it's been more like 20:10).

New bets:
P(12:10-52:10): 68%
EV: 1.33-1.87

Bets:
(Scurvy, Luck) x Fed x (Goo, Buck)
(Stuff, Fran) x Fed x Goo
Scurvy x (Capn, Fair) x Goo
Fed x (Goo, Buck)

I guess I'm hoping for an upset. All those safeties don't seem necessary, but my system says they have higher EV than boosters, so... *shrugs*

Mostly following, with a little tweaking.

(Squire; All in TI) x Fed x Goo
(Capn, Fair) x Goo
Scurvy x Fed x Buck
(Fed, Luck) x Buck

ETA: 24:10

Not too shabby!

24:10 as well. That brings me to 80:60 for the month thus far. 33% ROI is far below my average, but there's plenty of time for the month to shape up.

Edit:
P(8:10-72:10): 67%
EV: 1.73-2.19 (with one 0.61)

Bets:
Fed x Luck x Fran x Goo
Fed x Buck x Scurvy
(Fair, Young) x Fran x Goo
Fed x (Buck, Bonnie) x Goo
Fed x Fran x (all in HH)

Puffo looked way too strong in HH to leave out, so I'm covering a 13:1 today. You could replace that bet with Fed x Luck x Goo.

Young x Buck x Goo
Fed x Buck x Scurvy
(Fair, Young) x Fran x Goo
Fed x (Buck, Bonnie) x Goo
Fed x Fran x (HH - Goo)
Fed x Bonnie x Scurvy

ETA: Busted. Thanks Buck x Tail...sigh. I covered a few double upsets...but not that one.

Fed x Buck x Tail was the next bet after Fed x Fran x Goo, but I skipped it because it had too low a chance of winning. (I skipped a lot of other bets with an equally low chance of winning, and there was no way to guess which long shot I should keep...)

Ah, well. Can't win them all.

New bets:
P(12:10-52:10): 56%
EV: 1.19-1.76

Bets:
Goo x Buck x (HC - Scurvy)
Goo x Ed x (Fed, Scurvy)
Tail x Buck x Scurvy
Goo x Buck x Scurvy x (all in HH)

It seems like a reasonable set, but then again, so did yesterday's...

Goo x Buck x Fed x (all in HH - Fair)
Goo x Ed x (Fed, Scurvy)
Tail x Buck x (Fed, Scurvy)
Goo x Buck x (Peg, Scurvy; Fair)

I originally had the Fran safety, but when reviewing my bets, I realized I'd overlooked the Tail safety, so I dropped it.

Busted. Now at 80:80 for the month. *sigh*

Edit:
P(24:10-88:10): 72%
EV: 2.33-2.98

Bets:
Scurvy x (HC - Ed) x Fed
Scurvy x Goo x (Fair, Tail)
Young x Goo x Fed
(all in SW) x Scurvy x Goo x Fed

Seems so straightforward, but considering OCHtober's track record so far, I'm still apprehensive. Still, today looks like a great day to bet.

Alternative set (my system technically favors this one):
P(28:10-88:10): 54%
EV: 2.33-2.98

Bets:
Scurvy x (HC - Ed) x Fed
(all in SW; TI - Stuff) x Scurvy x Goo x Fed

(Note that this set is quite a bit riskier than the first, but it has a much higher chance of a bigger payoff. For what it's worth, I'm going with the first because of the recent track record.)

I'm going with mostly like Siniri's first set, but I'm substituting a safety on Orvinn for the Scurvy x Goo x Fed bet.

Scurvy x (Buck, Bonnie) x Fed
Scurvy x Goo x (Fair, Tail, Orvinn)
Young x Goo x Fed
(all in SW) x Scurvy x Goo x Fed

Here's hoping...

ETA: 52:10! Woot!

...Mr. P (who recently started betting on FC, with his own system) bet heavy on Fair. He ended with 286:10. Seriously. *286*:10. <gawks>

Wow, go Mr. P! Glad he got into it. It'll be interesting to see how a statistician does.

I managed 52:10. I'm more of a slow and steady bettor. I'm glad I went with my first set; the second busted.

P(12:10-42:10): 64% (additional 19% chance of only 4:10)
EV: 1.55-1.69

Bets:
(Black, Buck) x (Stripe, Bonnie, Goo)
Black x Goo x Young
Buck x (Stripe, Bonnie, Goo) x Young

Capn looks strong in Lagoon, but I've got no room for him. And Ed's a threat in SW. I'm just trusting my system.

286:10? Wow. That is impressive. My first thought was similar to Siniri's - I will be interested to know how he does long term, considering his expertise.

Siniri, I think you're missing something in your bets....?

Mr. P's been trying his own methods for the last month or so, but tweaked them yesterday before putting in bets (mumbling something about how he had forgotten to include something?). Before that, he was actually not doing as well, but then yesterday, well...maybe the tweak he made made a big difference? I'm curious to see how it works out with his new tweaks, too. Worst case scenario, he's already net positive for the month...

Gut betting a bit today. Ed looks like a real threat. Black doesn't seem like he's likely to win again (he's won 4 days in a row), but I'm covering him in case. Of course, if Fair doesn't win in TI, and it's a 2's day, I bust. But...OK. Here we go:
(Black, Ed) x (Lagoon - Capn)
Buck x (Lagoon - Goo)
Buck x Goo x Fair