Pink Poogle Toy Forum

Hope y'all followed Siniri yesterday, as I only got 18:10. Ah well. Still a win, so I'm not complaining.

I don't trust Goo today. He's won 6 days in a row straight, which I know he's done before, but I'm not sinking all 10 bets into him. Scurvy, while he busted yesterday, had won 8 days in a row previous to that, making him also on my wishy-washy list for a few days. Buck, on the other hand, has lost for the last 6 days straight, which strikes me as odd for him.

So, here's my bets:
Scurvy x Buck x (Luck, Fran, Young)
Orvinn x Buck x (Luck, Fran)
Fair x Buck x Fran
(Ned, Bonnie, Capn) x Buck
Scurvy x Peg

Of course, watch Goo go through and win anyways. Even if he doesn't, I'm not 10-betting him for at least two more days.

ETA: Oops. I didn't count right, and did 11 bets. I ended up cutting out the Fair x Buck x Luck. Here's hoping I don't regret it! Might want to use that instead of Scurvy x Peg, or one of the TI bets x Buck.

ETA2: *insert grumbling words* Wish I'd not messed up the bets, as I lost out on the Fair x Buck x Luck (28:1). Ah well, still took home 26:10 from Ned x Buck. I *knew* Goo would bust!

Well, hopefully you followed Pickles instead of me today. I never rely on trends or my gut; just my system. I've got ridiculously bad luck. When I play Pokémon with kids when I'm babysitting, I flip tails 80+% of the time (over dozens of flips now). You'd think maybe the coin was biased, but the kids flip heads about 50% of the time. So I just take luck out of it as much as I can.

Edit (New bets):
P(12:10-54:10): 50%
EV: 1.12-1.60

Bets:
Goo x (all in TI) x (Luck, Fair)
(Peg, Stripe) x Goo x Tail x Luck

Pretty risky today. Young Sproggie is a strong 13:1 today, and if I'd had an extra bet, I'd have considered adding him as a safety... but I didn't, so I didn't.

Still not trusting Goo 100%, though I did actually sink a chunk of my bets into him today.

Young x Tail
Buck x (Puff, Tail)
Goo x Puff
Goo x (All in TI) x Luck
Goo x Tail x (Fair, Scurvy)

My gut is not telling me much about this set....so I'll likely do either mediocre, or bust. That's *usually* what happens when I have no gut feelings.

ETA: 26:10 on the Young x Tail safety. A little better than mediocre, I guess.

Yeah, I realized as I was betting that I should have converted the base bet to the Young safety. I was in too much of a rush to bet today because I needed to leave for work.

Congrats on the nice win, P!

PPT was down when I attempted to post this morning (was in a hurry, and only just now back), but I managed to pull a 20:10 with Luck x Black.

I also got 20:10 on the Blackbeard safety. I tried to post a couple of times, but the site was down all morning into the afternoon for me. Glad it's back.

Hopefully I'll post bets early enough for someone to copy tomorrow. My system suggests that tomorrow will be a potentially lucrative but rather risky day.

ETA: Sorry, failed at posting early, but maybe Blue can sneak on during lunch or something. Definitely playing it risky today!

P(16:10-216:10): 43%
EV: 2.53-3.62

Bets:
Ned x Fran x Scurvy x (Luck, Buck, Goo) x Tail
Ned x Fran x Scurvy x Goo x Ed
Ned x Stripe x Scurvy x Goo x Tail
(Fran, Stripe) x Scurvy x (Luck, Buck) x Tail
Fran x Scurvy x Goo x Tail

Fran x Scurvy x (Luck, Buck, Goo) x Tail
Ned x Fran x Scurvy x Goo x Tail
Scurvy x (Buck, Luck, Goo) x Tail
Scurvy x Goo x Ed
Squire x (Tail, Ed)

Scurvy looks pretty strong...but it's been a month since Squire won.

Also, I don't trust all green arenas. There's usually at least a double bust. Usually.

ETA: Well, I certainly wasn't expecting Stuff to win a *third* day in a row. Busted! (But there was a triple upset!)

Two 13:1's won. I almost never bet on even one of those, much less two. Hopefully tomorrow will be better (and hopefully no one copied our bets today).

Edit:
P(12:10-42:10): 65% (P(4:10-6:10)=6%; P(0:10)=29%)
EV: 1.03-1.66

Bets:
Buck x Peg
Goo x (Puff, Orvinn, Peg)
Goo x (Ned, Fed, Scurvy) x (Orvinn, Peg)

Tweaked my system a bit because some of the odds shifts seem a little extreme, and I don't want my bets to hinge on them staying where they are. My system would have you (riskily) bet on: (all in SW) x (Ned, Fed) x Peg + Goo x (Ned, Fed).

(Stripe, Goo, Buck) x Scurvy
(Buck, Goo) x (Fed, Ned)
Buck x (Fed, Ned, Scurvy) x Peg

Also tweaked, but only some. Buck still hasn't won enough lately (IMO).

28:10 (would have been 42:10 had the odds stayed where they were when I bet)

I'm at 450:220 for the month (missed one of the best days, apparently, when most people won huge).

12:10 today. Not great, but at least not a loss.

I'm at 468:210 for the month. Would've been 496:210 if I hadn't messed up the bet on Friday, but eh. Still, not too shabby.

ETA: Today's bets:

Goo x (Stripe, Fran) x (Tail, Ed)
Goo x Buck x Fran x Tail
Goo x Buck x Stripe x Ed
Orvinn x Fran x (Tail, Ed)
Orvinn x Stripe x Ed
Goo x Squire

Could replace Goo x Squire with Goo x Scurvy x Fran x Tail.

P(24:10-84:10): 62%
EV: 1.81-2.57

Bets:
Goo x (Stripe, Fran) x (Tail, Ed)
Orvinn x (Stripe, Fran) x Ed
(all in SW) x Goo x Fran x Ed

Sorry I'm posting so late; I had a funeral to attend this morning for a friend's father. You've got about an hour from the time of this post to place bets (though gates will be closed for the first half hour of that, so you'll have to wait until they reopen).

ETA: 24:10 today.

8:10 yesterday, meh. Ah well. Not a bust! Wish I'd covered the right set with Buck, though, because he did win!

Tweaked quite a bit today, but here we go:
(All in SW) x Tail x Scurvy
(Fair, Black) x Stripe x Scurvy
Fair x (Tail, Stripe) x Fed
Black x Tail x Fed
Fair x Fran x Scurvy

Bets:
(Fair, Black) x (Stripe, Tail) x (Fed, Scurvy)
Fair x Tail x Ned
Fair x Fran x Scurvy

Barely got them placed before the round ended... And didn't really have much time to contemplate my choices.

Results: 28:10

Woot! The Fair x Fran x Scurvy bet (28:10) was actually one that I added to tweak. Not complaining about it!