Wed Oct 06, 2004 4:25 am
Neopetsmom wrote:Well I initially picked kugetsu to vote for simply because he posted early in the topic. I've played this game before and tow things have always been true. One, a disproportionate number of wolves post early in the game. I'm not sure why that it is. But, Ive seen may be 25 games played and bad guys post early most of the time (not all the time, but more often than would be predicted by their numbers). The second thing I've learned is that innocents benefit from executions. Waiting a day or so might be fine, but much beyond that and it gives the wolves too much of a headstart. So that is why I picked Kugetsu the first day.
At the end of the first day, there was no majority but there were more votes for kugetsu than anyone else so I didn't think it was likely that anyone else could get executed the second day and thought it made sense to build on that to get an execution. The second day he had the most votes but not enough to execute. Given that I didn't see it likely that anyone would really vote for anyone else on Day 3 and felt we needed an execution.
Now? I am not sure. The first 3 posters were kugetsu, Qanda and Wind.
I beg to differ. There are many factors which would affect your theory and I'll list them here.
1) There are only two wolves, and they may live in different time zones, so even if they were excited and wanted to post first on the thread, it is likely that they wouldn't be online when the gameplay thread was newly created.
2) Anyone excited about the game would post as soon as they see the thread, regardless of their roles. Especially since Scottnak urged everyone to be more active.
3) Some forumers tend to be more active then others, and are online more often. For example, I am online most of my waking time and I tend to notice a new thread sooner.
4) Kugetsu posted first, but it turned out he wasn't a werewolf. I posted second, and I'm sure as heck that I ain't one.
I'm not sure about Wind, but I don't suspect her much.
If you ask me, it is people who keep trying to divert the blame/attention to others who are more suspicious... especially those who try to influence the thinking of others. *looks at a particular suspect with narrowed eyes*
Wed Oct 06, 2004 11:26 am
Neopetsmom, your theory is all well, but it's just a therory! Nobody can give proofs, that's the bad thing.
I agree with Qanda once more: the "first poster is a wolf" idea turned out wrong since Kugetsu was a villager. I can't give out proofs for myself, but Qanda voted "nobody" twice: I don't think a werewolf would have done so, since if we kill someone it's a person that they don't have to maul.
But still I don't have any clue... I've got 4 suspicious people, though.
((EDIT: I forgot to ask... Neopetsmom, you already played the game? Where? *curious*))
I agree with Qanda once more: the "first poster is a wolf" idea turned out wrong since Kugetsu was a villager. I can't give out proofs for myself, but Qanda voted "nobody" twice: I don't think a werewolf would have done so, since if we kill someone it's a person that they don't have to maul.
But still I don't have any clue... I've got 4 suspicious people, though.
((EDIT: I forgot to ask... Neopetsmom, you already played the game? Where? *curious*))
Wed Oct 06, 2004 11:43 am
Wind wrote:((EDIT: I forgot to ask... Neopetsmom, you already played the game? Where? *curious*))
She MC's them at IDB. I'm also a frequent player there.
Anyway, I have quite a bit of suspicion on you. I'll give my reasons later, but I have school now.
Wed Oct 06, 2004 11:51 am
teddymon wrote:Wind wrote:((EDIT: I forgot to ask... Neopetsmom, you already played the game? Where? *curious*))
She MC's them at IDB. I'm also a frequent player there.
Anyway, I have quite a bit of suspicion on you. I'll give my reasons later, but I have school now.
The IDB hosts werewolf games? *MUST JOIN*!
EDIT: And I think that clears up some things a bit on Neopetsmom.
Wed Oct 06, 2004 1:05 pm
Qanda
You are right that there is no guarantee that someone posting early is a werewolf. However, in the first day of the game you have no true evidence on anyone and so you have to pick someone to vote for. I have MC'd about 15 WW games at IDB and have played in several others. I've noted that over those games if you look at the first 3 people who post that they are disproportionately wolves (or on other bad guy teams). Is it 100%? No. But if you voted for that first poster in every game over time you would hit more wolves than if you randomly selected someone. It isn't a guarantee, but is the basis for why I picked kugetsu that first day.
You are right that there is no guarantee that someone posting early is a werewolf. However, in the first day of the game you have no true evidence on anyone and so you have to pick someone to vote for. I have MC'd about 15 WW games at IDB and have played in several others. I've noted that over those games if you look at the first 3 people who post that they are disproportionately wolves (or on other bad guy teams). Is it 100%? No. But if you voted for that first poster in every game over time you would hit more wolves than if you randomly selected someone. It isn't a guarantee, but is the basis for why I picked kugetsu that first day.
Wed Oct 06, 2004 3:51 pm
I don't want to miss another vote, so... when's the deadline for voting? Today? Tomorrow?
Wed Oct 06, 2004 5:25 pm
I think execution time is 8:00 PM tonight
Wed Oct 06, 2004 6:33 pm
If its tonight, then we'll have to organize another voting.
*sigh* I think I might vote for nobody this time though, with how we killed Kugestu last time, even when he pleaded for innocence. I mean, next time we could accidently vote out the mystic.
*sigh* I think I might vote for nobody this time though, with how we killed Kugestu last time, even when he pleaded for innocence. I mean, next time we could accidently vote out the mystic.
Wed Oct 06, 2004 9:06 pm
Well, it's crunch time, and I'm still unsure of whom to vote for. Whoever is the #1 suspect, probably, just so that we can have an execution.
Wind, I really hope you don't mind, and even if you are executed, then if we win, then you win too
I am going to vote for you as it seems the majority will. I suggest everyone else do the same, we really need an execution to increase our winning chances.
Good luck to all.
Wind, I really hope you don't mind, and even if you are executed, then if we win, then you win too
I am going to vote for you as it seems the majority will. I suggest everyone else do the same, we really need an execution to increase our winning chances.
Good luck to all.
Wed Oct 06, 2004 9:33 pm
IDB is where i got this idea from, and where i have participated in about 9 games. Its a much more complicated game than this, but if you would like to see such complicated games, take a look
In any case... for THIS game, tonight is an execution day. 8:00 there will be another execution (provided there are enough votes).
In any case... for THIS game, tonight is an execution day. 8:00 there will be another execution (provided there are enough votes).
Thu Oct 07, 2004 1:48 am
NeopetsMom, you're still my first suspect. However, I'm going to vote for the majority...but you're the one who I've seen the most people mention they suspect, I think.
Thu Oct 07, 2004 1:55 am
Actually I think they have mentioned Wind the most. I don't really see a reason to suspect me. I've been in favor of the strategy that most benefits the innoncents and I've given a reason for why I was one of those who voted for kugetsu. If I was a wolf, I would be very quiet and try not draw any attention to myself at all.
Thu Oct 07, 2004 1:57 am
Neopetsmom wrote:Actually I think they have mentioned Wind the most. I don't really see a reason to suspect me. I've been in favor of the strategy that most benefits the innoncents and I've given a reason for why I was one of those who voted for kugetsu. If I was a wolf, I would be very quiet and try not draw any attention to myself at all.
Really? I only counted about two mentions of Wind, and three of you..maybe I missed some though.
Thu Oct 07, 2004 3:08 am
ScottNak runs into the dwindling crowd, noticing their growing concern.
"You've found someone to execute the last 2 days, maybe you can make it a nice 3... Lets take a look at your votes."
"Guess there will be another execution tonight. Wind, with 5 votes, you have been chosen for execution."
ScottNak aims his gun at Wind's heart and shoots a single bullet. Red blood trickles from the bullet wound, and Wind promptly falls over dead.
ScottNak shakes his head, "My my... you guys aren't doing pretty well with these executions."
ScottNak rushes off in the distance...
Maulings happen at 8:30
"You've found someone to execute the last 2 days, maybe you can make it a nice 3... Lets take a look at your votes."
votes wrote:Wind - 5 votes: jellyoflight, teddymon, ...Alex, Twizzler, Puck
Neopetsmom - 2 votes: Wind, Qanda,
Qanda- 1 vote: Neopetsmom
8 votes.
4 is majority.
"Guess there will be another execution tonight. Wind, with 5 votes, you have been chosen for execution."
ScottNak aims his gun at Wind's heart and shoots a single bullet. Red blood trickles from the bullet wound, and Wind promptly falls over dead.
ScottNak shakes his head, "My my... you guys aren't doing pretty well with these executions."
ScottNak rushes off in the distance...
Maulings happen at 8:30
Thu Oct 07, 2004 3:11 am
jellyoflight wrote:Well, it's crunch time, and I'm still unsure of whom to vote for. Whoever is the #1 suspect, probably, just so that we can have an execution.
Wind, I really hope you don't mind, and even if you are executed, then if we win, then you win too
I am going to vote for you as it seems the majority will. I suggest everyone else do the same, we really need an execution to increase our winning chances.
Good luck to all.
Just trying to get the facts straight... . who ever said that the majority is going to vote for Wind? So far only 1 person mentioned Wind as suspicious, and that is ...Alex. Twizzler made a mistake in his observations about Wind voting for the mauled person each time, as he admitted himself. Neopetsmom mentioned that the first 3 posters are lkely to be werewolves, and that includes the deceased Kugetsu, me and Wind. But she never said specifically who she would be voting for.
EDIT: Well, well, my advice came too late, as usual. Just when I posted, the execution happened. And another of us is executed wrongly. I may very well be mauled next. But if the werewolf is who I think he/she is, then mauling me will make things worse.