Werewolf 16: Monkey Business! DAY 7!

[Kugetsu]

Forgot about the whole banana thingy. And laq was actually beloved prince, freako-.-. But then I'm gonna have to put kugetsu on the spot and ask why he unvoted? I believe there is a deeper meaning than that...good role, bad role?
And here is my attempt to use secret words....banana, monkey, ape, gorilla, hairy....

Haha how about because I didn't want to die or take the risk of killing an important role (I am the one that mentioned dreaming of her first)? =O

You did vote for her even after she she revealed her role....

[-Ducky-]

great, just what we need, 4 innocents dead on the first day. this is not looking very good so far. -_-

a little birdie told me that Alex was a monkey. *nods*

EDIT-silly me forgot to

Vote-Alex

based on the above statement.

Last edited by -Ducky- on Mon Mar 27, 2006 11:32 am, edited 1 time in total.

[endeavourl]

how come one of the protectors always dies really early?

(of course, im basing this off of my limited 2 games of WW experience, this game being the 2nd)

[TDG]

v

You know what, Kuge? Since you're such a big fan of randomness,

VOTE: Kugetsu
VOTE: Laq

Just in case. By the way, your math is wrong. Even if you have three or four people in the mix, you'll still only hit one person, and that person has a 30% chance of being evil.

I'm not being hostile. I'm just voting for you because your math is slightly fallacious.

I feel like *headdesk*headdesk*headdesking* but I'll vote you instead.

Vote: theonlysaneone

For voting me because my math is "wrong" and failing. o_o

The more baddies in a group of votes, the higher chance that one has to being executed in a random execution. A person is randomly chosen for execution, if there are 4 baddies in the group of 5 people voted, there is not a 33% chance that one of them is evil (and thus there's not a 33% chance that a baddie will be executed). -_-

You failed to take into account the odds of that being the case.

The odds of four out of five people randomly selected being evil =

.33 * .33 * .33 * .33 * .66 * 5 (five different ways that 4/5 people can be evil, IE : oxxxx | xoxxx | xxoxx | xxxox | xxxxo)

= .039 = 4% chance

Then of that you only have a 4/5 chance of one of those 4 being picked (assuming the MC randomly picks between 5 even choices)

= .031 = 3% chance

Then of course if you add in every other combination of number of evil players among a group of 5...

.33 * .66^4 * 5 = .313 = 31% chance * 1/5 = 6.3% chance

.33^2 * .66^3 * 5 = 16% chance * 2/5 = 6.2% chance

.33^3 * .66^2 * 5 = 8% chance * 3/5 = 4.7% chance

.33^5 * 5 = 2% chance

Now, my maths might be a little off (it's been a while since I last did probability) but that should tally to around about 22.2%. Which is less than the 33% chance of somebody being picked and stuck with.

[_jade_em_]

*Skips long paragraphs of kill/excection descriptions & reads who died at the bottom, skims posts, then skips mathematical equations to avoid headache*

Sirclucky, Divine is a he

[mjrinella]

Bad night . Reading the banana section, I can't help but wonder who lost 50 of our bananas! Is it like a gambler role or something @_@?

Regardless, I also can't help but wondering if King Kong is evil or innocent.

Edit:

Vote: Alex
A little birdie told me that a little birdie told Ducky that Alex was a monkey.

Also, I'm somewhat un-informed in this game (already) so if anybody wants to tell me their role... .

[Chipper]

I don't think that we are off to a very good start. Things arn't looking to good not to mention we started out with 200 banana's. we gained some and we lost some then there are those that are just plain rotten we need to get ride of those *makes banana bread out of baddies*

[Pixa]

Vote: Alex

By evidence from thee peoples.

[Kugetsu]

Do you mean flying monkey (or another team)? I don't want to vote for her being a monkey since we're all monkeys.

[Matterbug]

Wow, that was a lot of bad deaths.

I was thinking what Kuge was though, aren't we all monkeys? What kind of monkey do you mean?

[Pixa]

I guessed he meant evil Monkey and just didn't state it clearly... any closure on the issue?

[-Ducky-]

silly people, i don't know what kind of monkey she is, all i know is that she is a monkey. . so quick to bandwagon are we?

[Pixa]

Unvote: Alex

[Kugetsu]

silly people, i don't know what kind of monkey she is, all i know is that she is a monkey. . so quick to bandwagon are we?

What possessed you to tell someone that another person was a monkey, when it's a given?

[mjrinella]

Unvote: Alex

Sorry Alex. Just out of curiousity, do we have any leads at all?