Pink Poogle Toy Forum

Oops, left off Young in my last row of bets (it's fixed now). Sorry about that! Thanks, P!

I think it takes about half a year of betting to really get a feel for how you do compared to others. I did a survey of regular FC bettors, and length of time betting (which ranged from just over six months to over five years) didn't seem to correlate with their long-term averages. I also had data from most of them six months apart, so I was able to compare how they did in that six-month period. Nearly everyone's six-month average was similar to their long-term average. For what it's worth, most people had ROIs averaging above 60%, with about half at 70% or higher.

(Note that FC does have fluctuations, where you'll do better or worse for a few months at a time, but they're short and seem to average out after about six months).

Edit: 42:10
Up to 74% ROI for the month thus far now. Phew.

Also 42:10.

...Mr. P got 90:10. He managed to cover Black x Stuff as well as Black x Stripe. O.o

I skipped the Black x Stripe x Young bet that would have yielded 84:10. Had I followed my system strictly, I'd have gotten 126:10, but I actually was only getting about 80% ROI following it strictly, and trying to make sure I cover things a bit more logically has increased that to over 100% for the past... 7 months+ now.

If Mr. P keeps this up, though, he's going to have a month at 1000%! I'd love to chat with him sometime and hear about the system he's using. There are a bunch of us in FC chat who use various statistical methods, from more advanced to more simple (mine's one of the simpler ones, I think). I find the various approaches really interesting.

P(12:10-76:10): 42% (plus 17% chance of 6:10)
EV: 1.00-1.23

Bets:
(Black, Ed) x Buck
(all in SW; all in HC) x Goo x Buck

Not a lot of EV going around today. Pretty risky.

Yeah, the Black x Stripe x Young bet was number like, 4 on mine, and I also skipped it.
I don't know enough about statistics to know exactly what he's doing, but I know he's analyzed the data that NeoDaq has (with their permission to download it first, of course). Seeing as his specialty is in analyzing "big data"...yeah, who knows. If he keeps this up, though, man!

Will place bets in a couple hours. First glance looks pretty dicey today.

Mostly following system based on what it said earlier (by about an hour), and adding in some Peg/Capn safeties, since as of now, it's predicting them to be much stronger than Bonnie and Puff. (In fact, right now, it wants me to bet pretty heavy and Tail and Buck.)

(All in SW) x Goo x Buck
Ed x (Buck, Stripe)
Goo x Stripe
(Ed, Goo) x Squire x Buck
Peg x Tail x Buck

I bet before the odds shifted, so I missed out on the Stripe safety. This is why I don't like betting so early.

Ah, well. I might not have had a chance to bet at all if I had waited...

Wait, that would have saved me all the NP I lost!

26:10 on the Goo x Stripe safety.

...Mr. P busted today. He had to put his bets in at the last minute, though, so who knows if the odds change made a difference or not? I don't know how his system works. He's still doing much better than me for the month, anyways!

P(12:10-56:10): 52%
EV: 0.83-1.51 (the odds haven't shifted yet, and I anticipate the negative ones becoming positive once they do)

Bets:
(Luck, Tail, Puff) x Fair x (Buck, Fran)
Luck x Fair x Buck x (all in HH)

Going risky to cover the boosters. You could drop those last 4 bets in favor of Fair x (Buck, Fran), Luck x (Stripe, Squire) x Buck.

Today feels like an upset day. System wanted me to cover Luck x Fair x Buck x (all in HH), and go super heavy on Squire, but it just feels wrong. Did some substituting instead. Here's hoping I don't regret it.

Luck x (Stripe, Fair, Squire) x Buck
(Puff, Tail) x Fair x Buck
Luck x Fair x Fran
Squire x (Fran, Buck)
Squire x Buck x (Young, Ed)

ETA: 8:10. Should've taken the riskier path. Ah well, not a total loss.

First glance at tomorrow looks like a 2's day. I smell a double or triple upset. Waiting until sometime tomorrow to place bets, for sure.

40:10

Back up to 78% ROI for the month. Still need a bit more to guarantee breaking even for the entire month, but it's not even halfway over yet.

P(16:10-72:10): 64%
EV: 2.35-3.07

Bets:
Goo x Buck x Scurvy x (SW - Bonnie; HH - Capn)
Goo x (Fair, Tail) x Scurvy
Goo x Buck x (Stripe, Young)

I had to drop the Capn booster and the base bet to cover both SW and HH; I'm especially not happy about dropping Capn due to his EV, but his P(win) is low, and something had to go.

I opted to cover a bit more in bases slightly further down in the list, and leave off the SW bets. Not thrilled about that, but this is one of those days that having all the 2's look so strong *screams* a trap! Threw in the Peg bet, because, while I'm fairly confident in Goo today, I still don't like 10-betting.

Peg x Buck x Scurvy
Goo x (Tail, Fair) x Scurvy
Goo x Buck x (Stripe, Young)
Goo x Buck x Scurvy x (All in HH)
Goo x Tail x Scurvy x Ned

36:10 on the Peg safety. If Goo hadn't busted, I'd've had 88:10 on the Capn safety!

Once again, betting early might have cost me on the Peg safety. At least I don't have to kick myself for skipping the Capn bet, though! (Trying to put a positive spin on my bust...)

P(16:10-104:10): 68%
EV: 1.56-2.12

Bets:
(Scurvy, Stripe) x Goo x (Ned, Young, Orvinn)
Scurvy x Tail x Ned
Scurvy x Goo x (HC - Stuff) x Ned

Bah. I need 11 bets today. I have two that I'm going to have to pick between, and I don't like it. Tail feels like a real threat today, as does Stripe...but I want to cover Stuff as well, just...in case. Sigh. You could substitute the Scurvy x Goo x Stuff with Stripe x Tail. Of course, if Peg randomly pulls through, it's all a bust anyways.

Stripe x Goo x (Ned, Young, Orvinn)
Scurvy x Goo x (Young, Orvinn)
Scurvy x Goo x (HC - Stuff) x Ned
Scurvy x Goo x Stuff
Scurvy x Tail


*headdesk* Busted. I knew I should've gone with Stripe x Tail instead of Stuff! Ah well.

I covered 2 Stripe double safeties, but not the one with Tail. Of course.

New bets:
P(10:10-63:10): 88%
EV: 1.15-1.44

Bets:
Peg x Fed
(Young, Goo) x (HC - Squire)
(Scurvy, Tail) x Goo x Fed
Fair

Blargh. Too many safeties. Hopefully one of the doubles I covered hits.

So far, today looks pretty bad. Black and Bonnie show up a LOT in my spreadsheet, as well as everyone in TI. Goo seems weak against everyone else in his arena...and so does Fed. I'm not happy with these, I don't think...but...what can you do? Mostly following what the system suggests, but I took out the SW/Lagoon boosters, and covered Goo x (Fed, Bonnie) instead.

(All in TI) x (Black, Bonnie)
(Fair, Goo) x Fed

Basically hoping for a double upset. Meh.

ETA: 12:10 on Bonnie x Goo

12:10 here as well. I was hoping for a deeper upset (or two), but at least it's a little profit.

P(12:10-128:10): 46%
EV: 1.51-1.81

Bets:
Goo x Stripe x (Fair, Luck)
Goo x Stripe x Buck x (all in HC, all in HH)

Going a bit risky. You could drop the HC safeties and cover Goo x Capn x (Buck, Fair), Goo x (Stripe; Buck) instead.