Pink Poogle Toy Forum

P(12:10-32:10): 81%
EV: 0.88-1.69

Bets:
(SW - Puff; HC - Stuff; all in HH) x Fed

Fairly standard set. Technically, Lagoon has the highest EV for any booster arena, followed by HH, but I skipped Lagoon so I could cover all the non-13s in my booster arenas (plus Young's FA is high).

2016 was the first entire year I tracked my FC data (though I'm missing most of June's NP values until TNT fixes my account access). I placed bets 363 of 366 days, and won ~7462:3630 (106% net profit). (It's approximate because I did not place all 10 bets at least once - it would be easy to figure out the exact number, but I'm too tired to bother right now.) My overall win ratio is up to at least 85% net (and it would be substantially higher if I could have bet my normal amount for the last half+ of the year). It's pretty crazy that I've been able to more than double my money for the past year. At first I chalked it up to just riding a "high" FC streak, but at this point, it's beyond a streak and seems to be more of a trend. Here's hoping 2017 continues it, though it's off to a rather inauspicious start.

I got off to a bad start to the New Year... My bets would have won 14:10 - had I remembered to actually place them. Doh!

New day, new bets:
P(20:10-64:10): 60%
EV: 1.97-2.50

Bets:
Scurvy x Goo x (Luck, Buck; all in HC; Tail)
(Luck, Buck) x Scurvy x Goo x Tail
Scurvy x Goo

Today looks pretty decent, but I'm 10-betting both Scurvy and Goo. You could replace the last bet with Scurvy x Fed for an additional 13% chance of 14:10 (EV=1.83).

Finally got a chance to tally up last month, and finished with a 632:310. Not too shabby! A little more than doubled my NPs! Can't complain, especially for how the month started!

Yesterday, I only came out 8:10. Meh. Ah well. Not the best start to the year.

I have to bet quickly today. Ran this fast, and I don't like 10-betting, but I did on Scurvy, and almost did on Goo.

Scurvy x Fed
Scurvy x Goo x (All in HC; Orvin, Tail, Puff)
(Luck, Buck) x Scurvy x Goo x Tail

60:10. Woot! Only 4 off from my max possible for today. Glad 2017 is off to a good start.

48:10 here. Definitely not complaining, especially for last minute bets!

ETA:
Today is a super special guaranteed win day. Follow EITHER of these sets of bets, and you should come out ahead.

(Young, Ed, Buck)
Goo x (Peg, Orvinn, Puff) (Currently at 13,10,13)
Goo x Fran x (All in HH)

OR

(Young, Ed, Buck)
Goo x (Stuff, Squire, Stripe) (Currently at 13,13,9)
Goo x Scurvy x (All in HH)



My set:
Buck x Scurvy x Fran
Goo x Stripe x Fran
Goo x Scurvy x (Orvinn, Peg)
Goo x Ned x Scurvy x Fran x (Bonnie, Fair)
Goo x (All in Lagoon) x Scurvy x Fran

P(36:10-120:10): 61%
EV: 2.91-3.83

Bets:
Goo x Scurvy x Fran x (all in Lagoon; all in HH)
Goo x Stripe x Fran
Goo x Scurvy x Orvinn

Today screams as loudly as Admiral Ackbar: "It's a trap!" Here's hoping I covered enough contingencies...

Edit: It wasn't a trap! 96:10. Could have been 104:10 had I not dropped the base bet in favor of the Orvinn safety, but I'm 100% happy with 96:10. I'm at 467% net profit for the month right now... So I'll most likely go down from here, but it's always better to start high.

Also could've done the 104:10 if I hadn't put in safeties, but, eh, I'll take the 72:10. Definitely liking the start of this month better than last month! Now comes the inevitable set of bust days...

Rapid-fire betting. Probably not the optimal set.

P(64%): 8:10-36:10
EV: 1.03-1.38

Bets:
(Tail; all in Lagoon; all in TI; Ned) x Goo

My system has Puff as slightly positive, so you could add him to the other boosters, but he's only at 54%, and if he loses, I wanted to have more than 6:10.

Went with a bit more of a risky set. We'll see how it turns out. I'm sorta expecting a bust.

(Stuff, Puff) x Buck
Squire x Puff x Goo
Squire x Puff x Ned x Goo
(Squire; Stuff, Black; Orvinn) x Goo
Puff x Orvinn x Goo
Ed x Stuff x Goo

12:10. Wish I'd added Puff to those other arenas, but hindsight is always 20/20 (except when it's not, of course...).

Busted last night. Ah well.

Skipping some boosters to cover more things. Not 100% happy with these, as I wish I had two more bets, but...it's what it is.

(Capn, Fed) x (All in HC) x Goo
Squire x Buck x Goo
Tail

P(24:10-80:10): 66%
EV: 1.78-2.51

Bets:
(Capn, Squire) x Buck x Goo
Fed x (all in HC) x Goo
(all in Lagoon) x Fed x Buck x Goo

Very standard set.

Edit: 32:10. Guess I didn't need all those safeties, but they had higher EV than the SW boosters.

New day, new bets:

Gambit: Goo Fed Stripe Fair Tail
VH: 316:70
P(16:10-108:10): 68%
EV: 1.88-2.61

Bets:
(Goo, Fran) x Fed x (Tail, Ned)
Young x Fed x Tail
Fed x Tail
Goo x Fed x (all in HC) x Tail)

Winter storm tonight; hope I have power to "collect" my hold.

(Leaving my gambit and hold info here so I have an independent record... it's not actually relevant to you guys, so just ignore it.)

Goo x Fed x (all in HC) x Tail
Fed x Ned
Young x Luck
(Fran, Young) x Fed x Tail
Goo x Luck x Tail
Goo x Fed x Ned

Won my minimum of 16:10. Ah, well. It only feels bad because I've been doing so well lately.